PREDICTION OF STOCK PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY COMPANIES IN CHINA

Abstract

In recent years, the manufacturing industry not only develops and grows but also plays an increasingly important role in promoting China's economic development. The manufacturing industry has been maintaining rapid development, and the government has been issuing relevant macro policies to curb capital overheating. In addition, many small and medium-sized investors also favor manufacturing stocks, which makes the manufacturing industry attract the attention of society. For investors, an important source of information is the annual report. There are many factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price. The stock price is not only affected by macroeconomic operation, social and political situation, market supply, and demand relationship but also affected by internal market factors such as corporate financial information and market supervision. However, among these influencing factors, the financial information of listed companies can be used most by investors. Therefore, based on the theory of information disclosure, this paper attempts to explore which financial indicators will affect the stock price. It can not only provide a reference for investors' behavior and decision-making but also provide reference and Enlightenment for other enterprises, institutions, and individuals to investigate the performance of the manufacturing industry and capital market.

Through the empirical analysis of the financial information of manufacturing listed companies in 2018 and the stock prices of companies from 2018 to 2019, this paper analyzes the main financial indicators that affect the stock price, and on this basis, obtains the influence level of this financial information on the stock price. This paper mainly uses the empirical analysis method to analyze the impact of the financial situation of listed companies on the stock price. First of all, the Pearson correlation coefficient method in SPSS is used to test the correlation between the selected financial indicators and the stock price, and obtain those financial indicators that have a significant linear relationship with the company's stock price. Secondly, we use the relevant variables screened out as independent variables and stock price as dependent variables to do multiple linear regression model to obtain the specific INTI International University (2020) impact of the selected financial indicators on the stock price. Finally, the established regression model is tested to test the accuracy and effectiveness of the model.

Through empirical analysis, this paper studies the impact of financial information on stock price, the conclusion is as follows:

Firstly, there is a certain value correlation between financial information and stock price, but the explanatory power of financial information on stock price is limited. The usefulness of financial information in China's stock market needs to be further improved. Second, earning per share and return on equity, the two key indicators, have a significant impact on the stock price. Third, profitability is the most important factor to determine the stock price, which is also the financial index most concerned by investors. Fourth, the financial performance has a greater impact on the stock price of the fiscal year than the stock price of the fiscal T+1 year.